16.25.1. "How do we know that crypto anarchy will 'work,' that the
right institutions will emerge, that wrongs will be righted,
etc.?"
- We don't know. Few things are certain. Only time will tell.
These are emergent situations, where evolution will
determine the outcome. As in other areas, the forms of
solutions will take time to evolve.
- (The Founders could not have predicted the form corporate
law would take, as but one example.)
16.25.2. My thinking on crypto anarchy is not so much _prediction_ as
examination of trends and the implications of certain things.
Just as steel girders mean certain things for the design of
buildings, so too does unbreakable crypto mean certain things
for the design of social and economic systems.
16.25.3. Several technologies are involved:
- Unbreakable crypto
- Untraceable communication
- Unforgeable signatures
16.25.4. (Note: Yes, it's sometimes dangerous to say "unbreakable,"
"untraceable," and "unforgeable." Purists eschew such terms.
All crypto is economics, even information-theoretically
secure crypto (e.g., bribe someone to give you the key, break
in and steal it, etc.). And computationally-secure crypto--
such as RSA, IDEA, etc.--can in *principle* be brute-forced.
In reality, the costs may well be exhorbitantly
high...perhaps more energy than is available in the entire
universe would be needed. Essentially, these things are about
as unbreakable, untraceable, and unforgeable as one can
imagine.)
16.25.5. "Strong building materials" implies certain things. Highways,
bridges, jet engines, etc. Likewise for strong crypto, though
the exact form of the things that get built is still unknown.
But pretty clearly some amazing new structures will be built
this way.
16.25.6. Cyberspace, walls, bricks and mortar...
16.25.7. "Will strong crypto have the main effect of securing current
freedoms, or will it create new freedoms and new situations?"
- There's a camp that believe mainly that strong crypto will
ensure that current freedoms are preserved, but that this
will not change things materially, Communications can be
private, diaries can be secured, computer security will be
enhanced, etc.
- Another camp--of which I am a vocal spokesman--believes
that qualitatively different types of transactions will be
made possible. In addition, of course, to the securing of
liberties that the first camp things is the main effect.
+ These effects are specultative, but probably include:
- increased hiding of assets through untraceable banking
systems
- markets in illegal services
- increased espionage
- data havens
16.25.8. "Will all crypto-anarchic transactions be anonymous?"
- No, various parties will negotiate different arrangements.
All a matter of economics, of enforcement of terms, etc.
Some will, some won't. The key thing is that the decision
to reveal identity will be just another mutually negotiated
matter. (Think of spending cash in a store. The store owner
may _want_ to know who his customers are, but he'll still
take cash and remain ignorant in most cases. Unless a
government steps in and distorts the market by requiring
approvals for purchases and records of identities--think of
guns here.)
- For example, the local Mob may not lend me money if I am
anonymous to them, but they have a "hook" in me if they
know who I am. (Aspects of anonymity may still be used,
such as systems that leave no paper or computer trail
pointing to them or to me, to avoid stings.)
- "Enforcement" in underground markets, for which the
conventional legal remedies are impossible, is often by
means of physical force: breaking legs and even killing
welshers.
- (Personally, I have no problems with this. The Mob cannot
turn to the local police, so it has to enforce deals its
own way. If you can't pay, don't play.)
By Tim May, see README
HTML by Jonathan Rochkind