17.13.1. Yes. And cats will move in with dogs, Snapple will rain from the sky, and P will be shown unequal to NP. 17.13.2. Seriously, the implications of strong privacy, of cyberspatial economies, and of borders becoming transparent are enormous. The way governments do business is already changing, and this will change things even more dramatically. The precise form may be unpredictable, but certain end states are fairly easy to predict in broad brush strokes. 17.13.3. "How do we know the implications of crypto are what I've claimed?" - We can't know the future. - Printing, railroads, electrification 17.13.4. "When will it all happen? When will strong crypto really begin to have a major effect on the economy?" + Stages: - The Prehistoric Era. Prior to 1975. NSA and other intelligence agencies controlled most crypto work. Cryptography seen as a hobby. DES just starting to be deployed by banks and financial institutions. - The Research Era. 1975-1992. Intense interest in public key discovery, in various protocols. Start of several "Crypto" conferences. Work on digital money, DC-Nets, timestamping, etc. - The Activism Era. 1992--?? (probably 1998). PGP 2.0 released. Cypherpunks formed. Clipper announced--meets firestorm of protest. EFF, CPSR, EPIC, other groups. "Wired" starts publication. Digital Telelphony, other bills. Several attempts to start crypto businesses are made...most founder. - The Transition Era. After about 1999. Businesses start. Digital cash needed for Net transactions. Networks and computers fast enough to allow more robust protocols. Tax havens flourish. "New Underworld Order" (credit to Claire Sterling) flourishes. - It is premature to expect that the current environment-- technological and regulatory--will be beneficial to the type of strong crypto we favor. Too many pieces are missing. Several more advances are needed. A few more failures are also needed (gulp!) to show better how not to proceed. 17.13.5. "But will crypto anarchy actually happen?" - To a growing extent, it already is happening. Look at the so-called illegal markets, the flows of drug money around the world, the transfer of billions of dollars a day on mere "chop marks," and the thriving trade in banned items. - "Grey and black capitalism is already a major component of international cash flows....Once adequate user friendly software is available, the internet will accellerate this already existing trend....Crypto anarchy is merely the application of modern tools to assist covert capitalism." [James Donald, 1994-08-29] - There are arguments that a Great Crackdown is coming, that governments will shut down illegal markets, will stop strong crypto, will force underground economies aboveground. This is doubtful--it's been tried for the past several decades (or more). Prohibition merely made crime more organized; ditto for the War on (Some) Drugs. 17.13.6. "Has the point of no return been passed on strong crypto?" - Actually, I think that in the U.S. at least, the point was passed decades ago, possibly a century or more ago, and that any hope of controlling strong crypto and private communication evaporated long ago. Abuses by the FBI in wiretapping Americans, and reports of NSA monitoring of domestic communications notwithstanding, it is essentially.....
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